I started buying btc ( which I never sold afterwards) in 2016, and have been holding only btc since then. I continue to hold it, and even buy it, even though today my so called btc stash is 20x its original price.
Here is my opinion about btc's expected price action in next 2-3 years
- first point, there will be no parabola like late 2017, where btc price went 4x in about 4 months. 4x price action in such short range, will not happen, Because there are many exchanges like bakkt and cme, which allow shorting of btc. Which means that price action will not be drastic.
- the upward movement in price will continue for next 2-3 yeras, and beyond. Overall, I expect it to be at 18k at EOY, and at about 25k-40k at end of 2021.
- The price rise is happening due to demand from gbtc ( normal 401-k holders), and demand from recent buyer like Microstrategy , which is a mnc that bought staggering 22k btc. That 22k btc, btw, took price from 9k to 11k. So here you can see demand directly taking price higher. I keep a tight watch on gbtc, and its accumulating btc at a drastic pace, spurred by demand from normal fellows mostly who are buying it for their 401-k. On top of that, get this, gbtc has no redemption program. Which means it only buys btc, ( and sells it only for fees if any).
- And now Fidelity is coming with its own Bitcoin Fund ( and only Bitcoin). That shows the demand for Bitcoin from the investors at large.
- Governments have already realized they cannot stop btc. Trump had told Mnuchin in 2018 to "go after btc'. But mnuchin could not do anything, because there is not much he can do. So on that front, bitcoin has proven ( to the extent) its strength as decentralized network which can't be brought down easily be governments. That's why microstrategy bought it too - they aren't fools to put so much money in something Mnuchin could bring down overnight by a decree. So there will be no such decree. At some point, govt's will likely enforce control ( using tax as reason, for example), and it will reduce Bitcoin's attractiveness, but its hard to look that far into future, because as of now, that is not what's happening.
- Another bullish point is ABSOLUTE lack of any alternative to btc. The top 10, apart from btc, is a shitshow. XRP is an out and out scam. and even others are totally no shots and scams. So Bitcoin is the only thing in this market.
- I think anyone who buys btc today, and holds for next 10 years, can get returns of about 10x-15x. And the thing is, the risk is very low, so I strongly recommend people to buy at least 10-20% of their portfolio in btc. This is for EVERYONE. I myself am about 80% into btc.
- Finally, don't buy btc if you can't stand falls as much as 75% ( in few months), and more. This is speculative asset. The base price is defined by long term holders, but the daily market price is defined by traders, who will sell all btc they hold ( even as people like me will not do that). So the price can flucuate, and I recommend you only buy if you can hold it for minimum 4 years.
Submitted August 29, 2020 at 04:01AM by parakite https://bit.ly/32EhFUc
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