Monday 4 September 2017

Hah, don't worry about the price! But... wait, what?


I've been watching the posts here for the last days and I'm worried about the amount of people that already struggle to handle the recent price decline. The people who are telling them hah, just look where the price will be in 1 week also don't really help, in fact they are making it worse.I know that hodling is a powerful meme here and many people really intend to hodl. But many of those people are pretty new and therefore only experienced to hodl during a bull market, which isn't really a hard thing. Let's take a look at the past and see how reality can look like.Let us take a look at this chart which is showing the past performance of the Bitcoin price. In September 2013, Bitcoin was hovering around ~$130. Suddenly, the price started to explode, reaching its high of ~$1,125 on the 4th of December. That is an increase of ~765%. Bitcoin was on a steady downtrend for about ~2 years after this all time high. It slowly lost ~80% of its value during this bear market, resulting in a price of about ~$230 in September 2015, almost 2 years after the ATH.Now, let's look at this chart which is showing the recent movement of the Bitcoin price. In early April 2017, the price was around ~$1,100. We started to see a fast increase, leading to a peak of $4,855 on September 1st. That's an increase of ~341%. A 80% loss from that ATH would result in a price of ~$971.But things are different now, right? Yes, they really are. We have more users, more merchants, more media attention, more adoption. That's why we probably won't ever go down to $230 again. That doesn't mean that there is no possibility that the price went way ahead of Bitcoin's current value.If your plan is really to hold to your coins, no matter what, then you should look at the past and mentally prepare yourself to see the price declining 70%-90% over several years, not just weeks or months. Because this mental strength is what it takes to stick to the plan. It's easy to hodl through a bull market and it's relatively easy to hodl through some dips which don't last longer than weeks. The hard part is to see the price slowly bleeding for years.This is not a price prediction. It's about showing you what can happen. You should mentally prepare yourself for this possibility if you want to be strong enough to stick to your plan in a bear market that lasts several years.Please, make that clear with yourself. The majority of posts here are overly optimistic. They tell you to just hodl and that Bitcoin eventually always went up, which is true. But they don't tell you what it took to go up. It took Bitcoin a bear market that lasted over 2 years, slowly bleeding 80% of its price.Hodl with the full picture deep in mind. Happy hodling! via /r/Bitcoin http://bit.ly/2ey5dN6

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