Longer version on Medium hereDear New York Agreement/SegWit2x Supporter:The bitcoin community dodged a bullet in August. There was a chance that Miners would be mining non-segwit blocks and be incompatible with a significant minority of nodes running BIP148 (UASF). This would have potentially led to an altcoin being created by those rejecting blocks, as miners would be mining non-segwit incumbent chain.But we avoided it and now Bitcoin has SegWit! However, now there is a new scare. The Segwit2X team has decided to continue the push for a contentious 2MB hardfork. This is despite the fact that Bitcoin has Segwit now, and large-block minority of Bitcoin now have an altcoin that serves their need with 8MB blocksize limit (BCH).Bcash would not have survived were it not for Chinese miners, associated with ViaBTC, owned partly by Bitmain and supported fully by Jihan Wu, founder of Bitmain. This represents a violation of the New York agreement to keep Bitcoin united. This essentially makes the New York Agreement null and void.Replay ProtectionSegwit2x clearly wants a hard-fork for a mere 1MB increase in blocksize limit, so there’s three ways with which they can do it:No replay protection whatsoever. Meaning that when someone sends a transaction on BTC, then the 2X coins are at risk of being stolen. The coins can still be technically secured on both chains using nlocktime and RBF.Opt-in replay protection. Meaning users have to take special action to protect their coins on forked chain upon moving them on main chain.Mandatory replay protection. Meaning transactions are distinct on both chains and there’s no risk of replay protection losing coins on the forked chain.The Segwit2x organizers insist that it is outside of their mandate to implement (3), “Segwit2x by design does not change the TX format”. (2) and (1) are basically the same, since in all cases, the coins can still be secured on both chains. And (2) requires a similar degree of technical sophistication to (1).This means that Segwit2x orgainzers are deliberately going to hurt unsophisticated bitcoin users by engaging in a technically unnecessary contentious hardfork.The current state of the code of Btc1 has opt-in replay protection coded, but it is not pushed so they are going with (1) above, no replay protection.My 2X Hard Fork TimeLine PredictionMy prime prediction is that the 2X agreement is going to collapse, miners will drop support, and all the businesses who have been signaling support will retract until it is negligible, leading to the project being deserted entirely. However, here is the reality of how the split is going to play out, if the Chinese do not end up shirking on the agreement:BTC will stay BTC, the incumbant chain will retain the symbol and the chain will not die, since it does not have reorg risk.SegWit2X hardfork is going to be an altcoin listed as B2X. Bitfinex’s stated policy is to name the fork differently and even Coinbase, a signatory, will likely have to list the incumbent as BTC.Even if, say, 95% of miner hashing power moves to the B2X chain, this doesn’t “kill” Bitcoin (BTC), it merely makes the blocks take slower to confirm, and gives time for users and the market to adjust.Miners are rational profit-hungry actors. If the users and market choose 2X and trade the price significantly higher than Bitcoin, then this would change the miner incentives. Their commitment to mine 2X would become at odds with the community and their economic incentives.As miners start to move back over to Bitcoin, 2X price will continue to plummet, and only a handful of miners will continue supporting it. It is unclear how much hashing power it could retain, but potentially 5% (less even than Bcash).The end result: B2X becomes an altcoin that is worth less than even BCH in market value, and BTC reigns supreme.NYA Supporters: RepentThe bad news for 2X/NYA supporters is that this means you supported an effort to hijack bitcoin and lost, and ended up on the wrong side of history. Those of you who are supporting 2X are going to have egg on your face once your chain fails. Bitcoin will succeed as BTC and your whole efforts to hijack the chain will be historically seen as a malicious attempt by miners and business interests to define bitcoin as theirs.The good news is it is not too late to repent and prevent the whole scene..The immediate step you can take is to shut off your 2x nodes and make a public statement retracting support of New York Agreement.At the absolute very minimum, if you must support this contentious hard-fork, then you can insist that SegWit2x implement STRONG REPLAY PROTECTION, just like Bcash, so that it causes zero network disruptions.But really it is better if you just advocate dropping the whole project itself. Segwit is on Bitcoin, Bcash exists for on-chain scaling and was a de facto violation of NYA, so why rock the boat with a third chain claiming to be bitcoin? This is a contentious hardfork that is continuing to divide the community and it behooves you to do what you can to stop it.Repent and drop support of 2x, it’s not too late!Sincerely,A bitcoin user who has been around a while. via /r/Bitcoin http://bit.ly/2xRVQku
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