Friday 29 December 2017

Simulating a Decentralized Lightning Network with 500,000 payments, 0.01% fee per hub and 10 Million Users: 100% success (99.9986%)


I repeated Diane Reynold's simulation, as described here, using her program. The only change I made was that instead of having "11 different fee policies evenly distributed among users", each node simply asks for 0.01% fee (= value x 0.0001) to route a transaction. Some of the 11 fee policies were quite complicated, like "trying to make channels more balanced".Here are the main results:Payments attempted: 500,000Fee as a percentage of the payment 0.175Routing failed: 7Routing failed for bigpayments: 3Routing failed for midsizedpayments: 1Routing failed for micropayments: 3Average lengths of routes: 17.5So the payment failed for only 0.0014% of the payments. Note that for the last 100,000 payments, routing failed only once (1 midsizedpayment) and from 100,000 to 500,000 only 3 times (1 big, 1 midsize, 1 micro). The average total fee for a payment makes sense, as 0.01% x 17.5 hubs = 0.175% total fee. I didn't realize the program stopped after 500,000 payments and will now try to run it for more payments. via /r/Bitcoin http://bit.ly/2Cmv9GF

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